WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Fri May 23, 2008 Reuters) - Oil’s relentless price rise has pushed U.S. drivers off the road, curbed consumers’ appetite for expensive goods, forced airlines into their deepest cuts in years and threatened car makers with a flood of red ink.
It all points to a dramatic shift in the U.S. economy as oil’s surge above $130 per barrel forces already cash-strapped households and companies to rethink business as usual, and the changes are likely to be lasting, even if energy prices retreat.
The consumer response has been modest so far, but the pattern is clear. The number of miles traveled on U.S. roads fell 4.3 percent in March from a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Transportation said on Friday, the sharpest yearly drop on record and the first decline in the month of March since 1979, when the last major oil shock hit drivers.
Businesses are reacting even more dramatically. “Going green” with energy efficiency programs, once a popular image-burnishing exercise, have now become a matter of survival for oil-intensive companies.
Gasoline prices hit a record national average of $3.79 a gallon in the run-up to the Memorial Day holiday weekend, traditionally the start of the summer driving season. This year, 12 percent of drivers say they have canceled travel plans and another 11 percent have cut the distance of their trips because of expensive fuel, according to a survey by Deloitte & Touche.
James Hamilton, an economics professor at University of California, San Diego, who studies oil price shocks, said “Now, with wages stagnating and fuel prices rising more rapidly, consumers can no longer absorb the pressures. That is reflected in slumping consumer confidence and a steep drop in spending on non-essentials”.
“We’re back at a level of (fuel) expenditures that’s similar to what we had in the late 1970s,” Hamilton said. “It’s a big enough part of people’s budgets that it’s definitely getting their attention.”
The economic implications are huge. Consumer spending accounts for some two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and there is no denying the slowdown. The Commerce Department’s retail sales data shows demand down sharply for autos and furniture, as well as at department stores.
When consumers curb spending, companies retrench, manufacturing falters, and employment dips. That is precisely what is happening now, and it points to a dangerous slowdown in the U.S. economy already grappling with the worst housing slide since the Great Depression.
“When gas prices hit $4 a gallon, you’re going to see America come to a screeching halt because for two weeks, consumers aren’t going to shop for anything except groceries,” said Britt Beemer, head of America’s Research Group, which surveys consumers on spending behavior. “Now, they’re not even going to the stores. They’re making the decision not to shop before they even leave their homes,” Beemer said.
ZED Comment: The ZED engine, designed to run on inexpensive, abundant hydrogen fuel, is both an environmental and economic solution. With the ZED engine, currently rising transportation and industrial fuel costs can be significantly reduced, in turn significantly reducing the price of goods, and returning the economy to growth and prosperity. For more information contact the company at corpcomm@zedpower.com