NEW YORK (Reuters Jun 2, 2008) - A surge in the price of crude is threatening global growth for the first time in decades and spurring a desperate surge in interest in energy alternatives and new technology to keep conventional oil flowing.
How companies and governments navigate the treacherous energy landscape — which some analysts liken to that of the 1970s and 1980s — will shape the future of the global economy and potentially tilt the geopolitical balance, experts said.
High prices are hitting motorists at the pumps, hobbling energy-intensive industries like airlines and freight and feeding broader inflation including prices hikes for food that have led to protests and even in extreme cases riots around the world.
“The oil price is unsustainable. I think we’ve reached the point now where we’re starting to see significant responses from consumers,” said Jim Hamilton, professor at the University of California in San Diego.
The silver lining could be in how the world fights back. Whereas in the 70s, governments looked mainly to conservation as a way to ease price woes, this era is looking to increased investment in alternative energies and better oil field technology to reach more resources.
Energy analyst and oil historian Daniel Yergin said earlier this month that record U.S. crude oil prices have reached a “break point” that will spur a shift away from an oil-centric transportation sector toward alternatives.
In the meantime continued price hikes are darkening the clouds on the global economic horizon. Energy experts said a continued rise could worsen an economic slowdown in Europe and the United States, already hit by a housing slump and credit crisis and potentially trigger a decisive recession.
“We’ll see growth slow globally,” said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wachovia Bank. “But the big losers are the oil importers of the world, including (South) Korea, Japan, China and a lot of other Asian economies in general.” Russia and the big oil exporters of the Middle East have the most to gain, analysts said.
“The victory is not only economic but political as well. The ability to control where exports go and where they don’t go transforms into political power.”