New York Times January 7, 2010. DETROIT — As General Motors began assembling batteries for the coming Chevrolet Volt on Thursday, a new study cast doubt on the likelihood that electric cars will be widely popular in the near future.

The study, conducted by the Boston Consulting Group, said battery costs were not expected to fall as much as automakers have projected, making electric vehicles too expensive for most consumers even 10 years from now.

The firm predicted that electric cars would account for just 6 percent of the global market in 2020, or about three million of an estimated 54.5 million vehicles sold over all.

The energy secretary, Steven Chu, said the vehicles were critical to helping Detroit’s automakers become successful again.

“We urgently need to change how we power our cars and trucks,” Mr. Chu said. “America has fallen behind in the race to build cars of the future.”

The Boston Consulting Group study, however, forecasts that most gasoline-powered cars will remain most popular for many years. It forecasts that they will represent 62 percent of sales in the United States and 58 percent of sales worldwide in 2020.

The main factor, the study says, is price. It predicts that the cost of a battery pack about the size of the Volt’s will fall by $10,000, or 64 percent, from 2009 to 2020. But even then it would take about 15 years for the cost of owning an electric vehicle to equal that of a gas-powered car.

“We’re going to show those foreigners how you make cars, and we’re going to have success,” Representative John D. Dingell, Democrat of Michigan, said.

ZED COMMENT: Show those foreigners how to make cars? VW, the worlds largest manufacturer, recently declared the electric car “hype”. Mitsubishi predicts a Lithium shortage by 2015 and a sharp increase in price. The BBC asks if we are trading Saudi oil for Bolivian Lithium, an unfriendly country which holds 80% of the world’s reserves. If it takes 15 years for electric to reach (not exceed) the same operating cost as gasoline, and the average USA car is 12 years old, most electrics will be scrapped before they become financially viable.  Alternately, ZED engines are built from 100% recyclable materials on current assembly lines using current processes, at a cost 1/3 less than conventional engines. When fueled by hydrogen the ZED engine is more powerful than electric, has a significantly greater range in any application and has zero emissions. Respectfully, Mr. Chu has identified the problem, but not the answer.

DETROIT (Reuters January 12, 2010) - Daimler (DAIGn.DE) and BMW (BMWG.DE) are feuding over just whose test fleet of small electric cars is closest to serial production in an attempt to ditch their image of thirsty, high-performance luxury cars.

Long reliant on hulking V8s like the BMW X6 sports utility vehicle or sporty coupes such as the Mercedes-Benz SLS AMG gullwing, both are now quick to emphasize their efforts to develop zero emission vehicles.

In July, BMW even went so far as to sell its exit from Formula One following a dismal season as part of a “strategic realignment” to channel resources for the development of new sustainable powertrain technologies.

In fact, no carmaker has sold anything but a miniscule number of electric cars. Full scale industrial production of zero emission cars is largely expected around 2012 and market shares of over 5 percent are unlikely within this decade.

Audi says fewer than 1,500 electric vehicles are currently registered in Germany, corresponding to only 0.035 percent of all registered vehicles.

“Some manufacturers are already releasing their e-cars on customers. We are only using test fleets,” VW brand R&D chief Ulrich Hackenberg, who called the technology a “hype.”

ZED COMMENT: Following a detailed global technology search, NERAC advises that they are unable to find any engine technology like ZED. It is the only engine which can run on any fuel, but in particular zero carbon hydrogen. Using hydrogen fuel and patent protected Berk-cycle heat scavenging, the ZED engine can produce twice the horsepower and torque of a conventional gasoline engine of the same displacement. It is the only true zero emissions engine which can match or exceed conventional engine performance in all applications. As VW rightly assesses electric – e-cars as a zero emissions solution is “hype” and will never achieve broad market acceptance.VW is the world’s largest car manufacturer, overtaking Toyota in 2009.

The automaker dance cards were full in 2009, with many producers just looking to survive. Other companies in China and India though had a one-time opportunity to acquire technology worth billions for a fraction of the cost it took to develop. Here’s a look at the year in review:

March 18 - BAIC said to want U.S. auto parts maker Delphi Corp’s DPHIQ.PK non-core assets.

June 3 - Little-known heavy machinery maker Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery unveils tentative deal to buy GM’s Hummer.

June 11 - BAIC interested in Ford’s (F.N) Volvo car unit, a newspaper says.

July 6 - Italian automaker Fiat (FIA.MI) agrees to 50:50 joint venture with Guangzhou Automobile Industry Group Co Ltd GAIGPA.UL to produce car engines in China.

July 23 - GM rejects BAIC bid for its Opel brand; keeps talking to rival bidders.

Aug 1 - BAIC will pay up to $117 million for a 40 percent stake in Fujian Motor Industry Group’s 50:50 commercial vehicle venture with Daimler (DAIGn.DE) in southeast China.

Aug 30 - China’s Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (0175.HK) is sole bidder for Ford’s Volvo unit, a Swedish business daily reports.

Sept 9 - Geely says its parent wants to bid for Volvo, with privately-held Geely Holding Group seeking full ownership.

Sept 9 - BAIC agrees to take minority stake in Koenigsegg as part of the Swedish firm’s purchase of Saab.

Sept 15 - Cash-strapped South Korean automaker Ssangyong Motor (003620.KS) proposes capital writedown that would slash the stake of SAIC, its majority Chinese shareholder.

Sept 15 - Volvo Car CEO says Geely denied preparing a bid.

Sept 16 - Geely shares suspended pending $250 million bond and warrant issue. Geely says not related to Volvo. Geely announces on September 23 that Goldman Sachs will invest $334 million.

Sept 17 - Geely approaches Magna International about possible stake in Opel; Magna refrains for now from any such partnership as negotiations with GM to buy the unit continue.

Oct 9 - GM signs deal to sell Hummer to an investment partnership headed by China’s Tengzhong.

Oct 12 - Tengzhong seeks regulatory approval for Hummer buy, aims to close purchase by early 2010.

Oct 28 - Ford chooses Geely as preferred bidder for Volvo. No sale price disclosed, but media reports put it closer to $2 billion than the $6.5 billion Ford paid for Volvo in 1999.

Nov 3 - GM opts to keep Opel.

Nov 24 - Koenigsegg pulls out of talks to buy Saab.

Nov 30 - BAIC says may still be interested in buying Saab after Koenigsegg talks collapse.

Dec 4 - GM and SAIC to set up 50:50 JV to make small cars and commercial vehicles in India. GM also to sell 1 percent stake in existing China JV with SAIC to its partner, giving SAIC control.

Dec 7 - GM in talks with BAIC about a partial sale of Saab assets, including tooling and technology.

Dec 14 - BAIC buys Saab assets, including intellectual property for its 9-5 and 9-3 sedans as part of a push to develop its own-brand cars

Dec 22 - Sources say Ford is making headway in Volvo sale talks with Geely and will announce progress in a statement during the week

Dec 23 - BAIC says it will launch an aggressive campaign to develop its brand both at home and overseas after buying Saab technology

– Ford says it has settled all substantive commercial terms for its sale of Volvo to Geely, and expects the deal to close in the second quarter of 2010.

WASHINGTON (Reuters Tue Jan 5, 2010) - According to a new report by the Earth Policy Institute (EPI) the United States scrapped 14 million autos while buying only 10 million last year, shrinking the country’s car and light duty truck fleet to 246 million from a record high of 250 million, according to the report to be released on Wednesday by nonprofit group the EPI.

The United States, the world’s biggest petroleum user, “is entering a new era, evolving from a car-dominated transport system to one that is much more diversified,” said Lester Brown, the president of the EPI.

In addition, market saturation of autos, urbanization, high oil prices that reached a record $147 a barrel in 2008, and the uncertain economy have helped cut car sales, Brown said. Given those forces, sales may never reach the 17 million per year level they were between 1999 and 2007, he said.

A continued drop in auto purchases could cut long-term oil demand and greenhouse gas emissions from transportation. he said. It could also lead to increases in steel supplies as big cars get recycled, Brown said.

Brown used data from the U.S. Federal Highway Administration and R.L. Polk & Co to write the report.

ZED COMMENT: The United States may be decreasing the number of vehicles on the road, but globally the demand for cars, and petroleum fuel, brings us ever closer to a permanent fuel shortage. Emerging countries with large populations and high demand, such as India and China, are more than offsetting American decreases. Unless alternate engines and fuels are phased in immediately, experts concur that a crisis is imminent.